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  #1  
Old 08-26-2007, 08:38 PM
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CA Daily Derby

Daily Derby grand prize is at $518k tonight, so I'm took a few stabs at it

Right now I'd rather pay $2 a shot at tonight's $512k Daily Derby pot at 1 in 1,320,000 odds, instead of $1 a shot at tonight's $52k Fantasy5 pot at 1 in 575,000 odds. Fantasy5 drawings sometimes have 2 or 3 winners, so it'd really suck to hit a low pot and have to split pari-mutel bleh!

cheers!
blitzed
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  #2  
Old 08-26-2007, 09:49 PM
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jeeez, this game is tough...

lastnight's draw was 2.6.4/023

tonight's was 2.8.4/530 1st & 3rd places horses were the same tsk!

I only matched 2 of the 6 numbers by position:
X8X/X3X awww crap

ya need to at least match the 1st horse or the race time to win anything. I don't get jack for gettin the 2nd horse, bummer.

I'll probably try again tomorrow night, and hope that a more probable draw comes up. pick3 draws look more random than the last 2 Daily Derby draws which use numbers 1 to 12 ha!

later,
blitzed
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  #3  
Old 08-27-2007, 07:59 PM
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I made a few more picks tonight, what the heck!

27AUG DailyDerby @ $523k
====b=o=i=l=d=o=w=n=====

Horse Matrix
==boildown==
3.4.10.11
12.9.10.7
3.8.11.9.7

Time Matrix
==boildown==
2346
926
1246

cheers!
blitzed
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  #4  
Old 08-27-2007, 09:10 PM
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no go draw was 11.7.6/171

half the draw was sitting in my ultra-boildowns tho:

Horse Matrix
==boildown==
3.4.10.11
12.9.10.7
3.8.11.9.7

Time Matrix
==boildown==
2346
926
1246

I'm gonna ride you down horsies! I guess I have to do some fine-tuning.
blitzed
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  #5  
Old 08-29-2007, 07:42 PM
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29AUG DailyDerby @ $534k

29AUG DailyDerby @ $534k
====b=o=i=l=d=o=w=n=====

Horse Matrix
==boildown==
3.4.10.5...1.7.6
12.9.5.1...3.10.2
3.11.9.7.1...5.12

3,5,9,1,10,12 is my 6horse boildown.

Time Matrix
==boildown==
263.897
906.548
678.24

62984?

blitzed
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  #6  
Old 08-29-2007, 09:46 PM
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MISS, but entire draw in rundown!

no go, 11 & 7 winners again...draw was 7.12.11/208.

Horse Matrix
==boildown==
3.4.10.5...1.7.6
12.9.5.1...3.10.2
3.11.9.7.1...5.12

Time Matrix
==boildown==
263.897
906.548
678.24

I had 306, but draw was the other diagonal doh!

this game is tough, even if I can ride down the draw into the rundown, I haven't been able to pull any sort of winners out yet.

later,
blitzed
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  #7  
Old 09-04-2007, 08:23 PM
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Come on horsies!

JackisPotus at $567k tonight.

I could actually go to the races if I really wanted too, but I'm tired and it is hot tonight.

Better to just stay home and risk losin a few bucks har har!

blitzed
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  #8  
Old 09-04-2007, 10:16 PM
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doh! the 3 horses in my boildown, bombed on time. no luck on my pick.

I'll keep takin one token stab at it, just for the hell of it.

cheers!
blitzed
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  #9  
Old 09-05-2007, 02:45 AM
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05SEP Daily Derby rundown

Here is my full rundown with boildown of most probables to the left, and the rest to the right, last draw at far right.

Make freestyle picks from it, or simply watch how the draw trickles out. enjoy!

05SEP DailyDerby @$573k+
====b=o=i=l=d=o=w=n=====

Horse Matrix
==boildown==
3.4.5.1.12......9.11.2.6.10.7---8
5.1.2.11.4......6.7.12.10.3.8---9
3.7.5.10.4.8...8.6.11.1.2.9----12

Time Matrix
==boildown==
387.02......1964---5
548.3........9260---7
672.301...94-------5

cheers!
blitzed
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  #10  
Old 09-10-2007, 04:15 PM
Zen Audio Zen Audio is offline
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The payouts on this baby sure are enticing. I used to bet a few ponies back in the day. Problem is it is not a real race, so you can't use win history or workout times to narrow the field. You have to treat it as a numbers game and forget there are horses involved. Basically a pick 3 with 12 numbers involved instead on the usual 10.
The real kicker is the race time with what is it, like 1000 choices or something.
I used to play key wheels for the trifecta on the horses with the horse I chose wheeled in all 3 positions with 6 other horses. the strayegy was almost break even, but not quite.
If this was a dollar game I'd be more inclined to play. I used to wheel 1 horse in 3 positions with 6 others for $1 and I think it was a $60 bet, so at $2 a ticket that would make it a $120 bet on this game, and that is just with one horse keyed in the wheel x win/place/show. Because there is no reason to believe any one horse is superior to the others in this game, that is a risky strategy. You'd need to do it with several horses and lay out some big cash.
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  #11  
Old 09-10-2007, 08:50 PM
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hiya Zen Audio,

yes the $2 ticket cost for Daily Derby is very much a turn off.

also unlike Daily3 pick3, there is no boxing and ifya cleared the 1 in 1,000 odds on racetime, lastnight's racetime payout was chump change at $64 tsk!

sometimes I let 1 or 2 good picks ride on Daily Derby...what the heck, the jackpot is over $600k now...not bad for 1 in 1.3mil odds...more realistic than the big lotto games.

Fantasy5 pot can get up into $XXXk, but it is shared and I've seen the split as bad as $12.5k per winner, that is weak for clearin the 1 in 575k odds.

California lottery needs fresh new games & online play. Ages ago I contacted Arnie & lottery with complaints & suggestions...and there has finally been talk of lettin a professional gamin joint run the CA games. that'd be sweet, especially with online play

cheers!
blitzed
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  #12  
Old 09-10-2007, 11:20 PM
Zen Audio Zen Audio is offline
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Hey Blitzed.
Looks like no-one hit it again. I did put $18 into it tonight. Came away with two first place wins for a total of $6. Better than a total loss I suppose.

The jackpot is getting quite interesting. It is just difficult to devise a system. You can effectively "box" your horses, the same way you might box a pick 3, just like at the track. You just have to manually fill out all the tickets, but I always stayed away from races with a full field of 12. Boxing them adds up quick. i hate that you don't have a $1 option. I think the game might get more play at $1. It sure has had a good run without a winner.
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  #13  
Old 09-11-2007, 01:22 AM
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hiya Zen Audio,

glad you at least got a few wins

ashame that CA lottery is greedy and bet that the horse racing crowd would go for the $2 novelty. they should allow 25cent & 50cent bets for a portion of the pot...a hell of a lot more people would play...especially online bets instead of the oldfashioned paperslip nonsense. I hate standing in line and feeling that people are pissed because they have to wait for the clerk to run my numbers.

racetime tonight would have paid a pathetic $39

seeya,
blitzed
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  #14  
Old 09-11-2007, 02:04 AM
Zen Audio Zen Audio is offline
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Some interesting observations

I know what you mean about standing in line. If the fant 5 jackpot is up at 150K plus, and I am in a mood, and want to wheel 30 or 40 numbers it takes quite a while to spit them all out.
Here is some of the things I've been rolling in my mind as far as the Daily Derby.
You have to pay $2 for your 1:1,320,000 odds
In fantasy 5 $2 gets you 2 plays, or 1:287,500 odds
So for a $2 bet, your odds are 4.6 times worse for Daily Derby. So you need the prize to be at least 4.6 times higher, which it currently is.

The payouts are way out of whack for the combinations Win+race time and Exacta+racetime.
Your odds of getting the win+racetime are 1:13,200 much worse than the odds of the trifecta. It is only matched on average 2.5 times per draw over the last 26 draws, yet the payout is usually between $40-$70

The odds of exacta+racetime are 1:147,000 It has only been matched 4 times in the last 26 draws, yet the 4 prizes paid were between $72-$83 That doesn't at all jive with the odds of hitting. They need to up that payout.

I really think if they cut the price to $1 and upped the payout for the exacta+race time, and the win+race time, that they might have a nice game here.
Based on the play rate as it is, I'd bet this game falls by the wayside in a short time. Based on the odds and hit rates for the exacta+race time and the win+race time, and recognizing that 26 games is a short period to look over, the numbers say that if the odds were hitting perfectly they are getting between 23,000 and 33,000 players per day. I don't think I'm too far off. No hit today and the jackpot barely creeped up. That is not impressing anybody at the lottery office would be my guess.

Just my .02

GL to you Blitzed.
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  #15  
Old 09-11-2007, 02:56 AM
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11SEP DailyDerby @ $604k+

ifya bet $2 on Fantasy5 I look at it as 2 shots in 575,000 possibilities.

anyway, here is my fresh rundown.

11SEP DailyDerby @ $604k+
====b=o=i=l=d=o=w=n=====

Horse Matrix
==boildown==
3.5.1.9....11.2.6.10...7.8.12.4
1.2.11.6...10.8.3.7....4.5.12
7.5.10.4...8.6.11.....12.9.3.1.2

Time Matrix
==boildown==
387.0215..694
582.07....14396
672.0841..953

cheers!
blitzed
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