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positionnal analysis

taaroa
05-20-2005, 01:44 PM
Hi,

I apologize. A newbie question: for positionnal analysis (getting median, mode, and others in Excel) ,how do I must present my drawings?

like this :
1/ in the ball number order of drawing : 22 6 12 54 42 3
or like this :
2/ sorted after drawing : 3 6 12 22 42 54

The first solution make sense to me but I'm not sure.

Thanks in advance.

taaroa

johnph77
05-20-2005, 07:41 PM
Available. IM me at Yahoo under this name.

taaroa
05-21-2005, 04:34 PM
Thanks johnph77 but I could not reach your 649 maths. Very slow (for me).

taaroa

johnph77
05-22-2005, 01:20 AM
It's a big file - over 3Mb. Takes time.

Without going into the trouble to type these lines into a non-scalable font format, positional analysis on the 6/49 game:

.......A.........B........C........D........E..... ...F......Total
.
.1..1712304....................................... ........1712304
.2..1533939...178365.............................. ........1712304
.3..1370754...326370....15180..................... ........1712304
.4..1221759...446985....42570......990............ ........1712304
.5..1086008...543004....79464.....3784.......44... ........1712304
.6...962598...617050...123410.....9030......215... .....1..1712304
.7...850668...671580...172200....17220......630... .....6..1712304
.8...749398...708890...223860....28700.....1435... ....21..1712304
.9...658008...731120...276640....43680.....2800... ....56..1712304
10...575757...740259...329004....62244.....4914... ...126..1712304
11...501942...738150...379620....84360.....7980... ...252..1712304
12...435897...726495...427350...109890....12210... ...462..1712304
13...376992...706860...471240...138600....17820... ...792..1712304
14...324632...680680...510510...170170....25025... ..1287..1712304
15...278256...649264...544544...204204....34034... ..2002..1712304
16...237336...613800...572880...240240....45045... ..3003..1712304
17...201376...575360...595200...277760....58240... ..4368..1712304
18...169911...534905...611320...316200....73780... ..6188..1712304
19...142506...493290...621180...354960....91800... ..8568..1712304
20...118755...451269...624834...393414...112404... .11628..1712304
21....98280...409500...622440...430920...135660... .15504..1712304
22....80730...368550...614250...466830...161595... .20349..1712304
23....65780...328900...600600...500500...190190... .26334..1712304
24....53130...290950...581900...531300...221375... .33649..1712304
25....42504...255024...558624...558624...255024... .42504..1712304
26....33649...221375...531300...581900...290950... .53130..1712304
27....26334...190190...500500...600600...328900... .65780..1712304
28....20349...161595...466830...614250...368550... .80730..1712304
29....15504...135660...430920...622440...409500... .98280..1712304
30....11628...112404...393414...624834...451269... 118755..1712304
31.....8568....91800...354960...621180...493290... 142506..1712304
32.....6188....73780...316200...611320...534905... 169911..1712304
33.....4368....58240...277760...595200...575360... 201376..1712304
34.....3003....45045...240240...572880...613800... 237336..1712304
35.....2002....34034...204204...544544...649264... 278256..1712304
36.....1287....25025...170170...510510...680680... 324632..1712304
37......792....17820...138600...471240...706860... 376992..1712304
38......462....12210...109890...427350...726495... 435897..1712304
39......252.....7980....84360...379620...738150... 501942..1712304
40......126.....4914....62244...329004...740259... 575757..1712304
41.......56.....2800....43680...276640...731120... 658008..1712304
42.......21.....1435....28700...223860...708890... 749398..1712304
43........6......630....17220...172200...671580... 850668..1712304
44........1......215.....9030...123410...617050... 962598..1712304
45................44.....3784....79464...543004..1 086008..1712304
46........................990....42570...446985..1 221759..1712304
47...............................15180...326370..1 370754..1712304
48.......................................178365..1 533939..1712304
49...............................................1 712304..1712304
.
Tl.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13 983816

andrew3698
05-22-2005, 11:32 AM
Hi johnph77

Would you be able to provide the theoretical positional frequencies analysis for a 6/45 lottery. please.

I have used the draw history to estimate the upper and lower limits of the positional ranges, but would like to compare the empirical & theoretical results.

PAB
05-22-2005, 02:18 PM
Hi andrew3698,


Originally posted by andrew3698
Would you be able to provide the theoretical positional frequencies analysis for a 6/45 lottery. please.
Below is the Information you Requested :-

Number P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Totals
1 1086008 0 0 0 0 0 1086008
2 962598 123410 0 0 0 0 1086008
3 850668 223860 11480 0 0 0 1086008
4 749398 303810 31980 820 0 0 1086008
5 658008 365560 59280 3120 40 0 1086008
6 575757 411255 91390 7410 195 1 1086008
7 501942 442890 126540 14060 570 6 1086008
8 435897 462315 163170 23310 1295 21 1086008
9 376992 471240 199920 35280 2520 56 1086008
10 324632 471240 235620 49980 4410 126 1086008
11 278256 463760 269280 67320 7140 252 1086008
12 237336 450120 300080 87120 10890 462 1086008
13 201376 431520 327360 109120 15840 792 1086008
14 169911 409045 350610 132990 22165 1287 1086008
15 142506 383670 369460 158340 30030 2002 1086008
16 118755 356265 383670 184730 39585 3003 1086008
17 98280 327600 393120 211680 50960 4368 1086008
18 80730 298350 397800 238680 64260 6188 1086008
19 65780 269100 397800 265200 79560 8568 1086008
20 53130 240350 393300 290700 96900 11628 1086008
21 42504 212520 384560 314640 116280 15504 1086008
22 33649 185955 371910 336490 137655 20349 1086008
23 26334 160930 355740 355740 160930 26334 1086008
24 20349 137655 336490 371910 185955 33649 1086008
25 15504 116280 314640 384560 212520 42504 1086008
26 11628 96900 290700 393300 240350 53130 1086008
27 8568 79560 265200 397800 269100 65780 1086008
28 6188 64260 238680 397800 298350 80730 1086008
29 4368 50960 211680 393120 327600 98280 1086008
30 3003 39585 184730 383670 356265 118755 1086008
31 2002 30030 158340 369460 383670 142506 1086008
32 1287 22165 132990 350610 409045 169911 1086008
33 792 15840 109120 327360 431520 201376 1086008
34 462 10890 87120 300080 450120 237336 1086008
35 252 7140 67320 269280 463760 278256 1086008
36 126 4410 49980 235620 471240 324632 1086008
37 56 2520 35280 199920 471240 376992 1086008
38 21 1295 23310 163170 462315 435897 1086008
39 6 570 14060 126540 442890 501942 1086008
40 1 195 7410 91390 411255 575757 1086008
41 0 40 3120 59280 365560 658008 1086008
42 0 0 820 31980 303810 749398 1086008
43 0 0 0 11480 223860 850668 1086008
44 0 0 0 0 123410 962598 1086008
45 0 0 0 0 0 1086008 1086008
Totals 8145060 8145060 8145060 8145060 8145060 8145060

If you are Using Excel you can Use Text to Columns to Convert the Above into a Readable Format.

Hope this Helps.
All the Best.
PAB
:wavey:

taaroa
05-22-2005, 03:45 PM
Thanks johnph77 for the graph. Which lottery is it? Do you think this will work for any 649 lottery?

taaroa

johnph77
05-22-2005, 08:00 PM
Disregard - my mistake. Above chart is for 6/45. 6/49 on the way.

johnph77
05-22-2005, 08:23 PM
...............................6/49
................Numeric.Position.Frequency.Chart


.......A........B........C........D........E...... ..F......Total
.
.1..1712304....................................... ........1712304
.2..1533939...178365.............................. ........1712304
.3..1370754...326370....15180..................... ........1712304
.4..1221759...446985....42570......990............ ........1712304
.5..1086008...543004....79464.....3784.......44... ........1712304
.6...962598...617050...123410.....9030......215... .....1..1712304
.7...850668...671580...172200....17220......630... .....6..1712304
.8...749398...708890...223860....28700.....1435... ....21..1712304
.9...658008...731120...276640....43680.....2800... ....56..1712304
10...575757...740259...329004....62244.....4914... ...126..1712304
11...501942...738150...379620....84360.....7980... ...252..1712304
12...435897...726495...427350...109890....12210... ...462..1712304
13...376992...706860...471240...138600....17820... ...792..1712304
14...324632...680680...510510...170170....25025... ..1287..1712304
15...278256...649264...544544...204204....34034... ..2002..1712304
16...237336...613800...572880...240240....45045... ..3003..1712304
17...201376...575360...595200...277760....58240... ..4368..1712304
18...169911...534905...611320...316200....73780... ..6188..1712304
19...142506...493290...621180...354960....91800... ..8568..1712304
20...118755...451269...624834...393414...112404... .11628..1712304
21....98280...409500...622440...430920...135660... .15504..1712304
22....80730...368550...614250...466830...161595... .20349..1712304
23....65780...328900...600600...500500...190190... .26334..1712304
24....53130...290950...581900...531300...221375... .33649..1712304
25....42504...255024...558624...558624...255024... .42504..1712304
26....33649...221375...531300...581900...290950... .53130..1712304
27....26334...190190...500500...600600...328900... .65780..1712304
28....20349...161595...466830...614250...368550... .80730..1712304
29....15504...135660...430920...622440...409500... .98280..1712304
30....11628...112404...393414...624834...451269... 118755..1712304
31.....8568....91800...354960...621180...493290... 142506..1712304
32.....6188....73780...316200...611320...534905... 169911..1712304
33.....4368....58240...277760...595200...575360... 201376..1712304
34.....3003....45045...240240...572880...613800... 237336..1712304
35.....2002....34034...204204...544544...649264... 278256..1712304
36.....1287....25025...170170...510510...680680... 324632..1712304
37......792....17820...138600...471240...706860... 376992..1712304
38......462....12210...109890...427350...726495... 435897..1712304
39......252.....7980....84360...379620...738150... 501942..1712304
40......126.....4914....62244...329004...740259... 575757..1712304
41.......56.....2800....43680...276640...731120... 658008..1712304
42.......21.....1435....28700...223860...708890... 749398..1712304
43........6......630....17220...172200...671580... 850668..1712304
44........1......215.....9030...123410...617050... 962598..1712304
45................44.....3784....79464...543004..1 086008..1712304
46........................990....42570...446985..1 221759..1712304
47...............................15180...326370..1 370754..1712304
48.......................................178365..1 533939..1712304
49...............................................1 712304..1712304
.
TL.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13 983816

It is a generic chart - works for any 6/49 game.

taaroa
05-23-2005, 01:03 AM
Thanks for your help johnph77.

I used the former array with Excel. No problem.

It clear that this analysis is made on numbers in the drawing order, not sorted. I was confused because I read an article by Ion Saliu on his site about analysis of number's position with spreadsheet excel. His analysis is on sorted numbers. what do you think of this particular method?

taaroa

johnph77
05-23-2005, 02:51 AM
The chart is based on sorted numbers. The number 1 can only appear in Position A, the number 49 can only appear in Position F, for instance.

I haven't done any work at all with numbers in drawn order; to do so would require historical data from the lottery commission governing the particular game you're playing. Mathematically, then, each number would have an equal chance of occupying any position on the chart and the first thing you would look for would be certain numbers which fall outside the bounds of normal probability. But it's an interesting concept. The problem would lie in that there would be too few drawings to formulate any mathematical trend at all, given the number of possibilities.

gl

j

taaroa
05-23-2005, 04:43 AM
johnph77

I have the data history of the 649 lottery I play. French lottery. Till last drawing, yesterday, there are 4156 drawings. I got the following results on sorted file :

N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N6

MEDIAN 6 13 21 29 37 45
MODE 1 10 19 27 38 49

Mode is the most common number in column.


taaroa

PAB
05-23-2005, 07:14 AM
Hi taaroa,


Originally posted by taaroa
I have the data history of the 649 lottery I play. French lottery. Till last drawing, yesterday, there are 4156 drawings.
Have you got a Web Site that I can Download ALL the Draw History from Please.

Thanks in Advance.
All the Best.
PAB
:wavey:

andrew3698
05-23-2005, 07:43 AM
Hi PAB

Thanks for the frequency distribution chart.

I'm fiddling with positional filters in combination with other types of filters, to try and gather six winning numbers into a working pool of 20 numbers consistently, first. Then to build up further from that point onwards.

Bonanza
05-23-2005, 10:48 AM
Originally posted by PAB
Hi taaroa,



Have you got a Web Site that I can Download ALL the Draw History from Please.

Thanks in Advance.
All the Best.
PAB
:wavey:


If they are text file, that will be great!

GillesD
05-23-2005, 11:39 AM
Up to now for Canadian Lotto 6/49, with 2,226 draws, here are the results for each position (using numbers in sorted order). The data listed is the position (from N1 to N6 and the bonus number), then the average, the median and the mode:

N1: 07.3 -- 06 -- 01
N2: 14.5 -- 14 -- 12
N3: 21.9 -- 22 -- 20
N4: 29.0 -- 30 -- 31
N5: 36.2 -- 37 -- 43
N6: 43.2 -- 45 -- 49
BN: 25.1 -- 25 -- 11

johnph77
05-23-2005, 12:06 PM
According to the chart, the ideal mode numbers for a 6/49 lottery would be 1-10-20-30-40-49. All of the mode numbers in the regular 6/49 drawing (excluding the bonus number) posted by taaroa and GillesD fall within the bounds of normal mathematical probability given the limited number of draws vs. the number of possibilities. The only number leaping out at me as being even close to abnormal is GillesD's 43 in the N5 position, but even this is within 10% of the most probable number, 40.

taaroa
05-23-2005, 03:08 PM
Hi,

This is the URL to get the French lotto archives :

http://www.fdjeux.com/jeux/loto/loto_s_historiques.php

There is a _ in : loto_s_historiques.

When page open, just click on the Zipped file to download. Unzip it with Winzip. The file format is CSV and open as an excel file.

In this lottery, there are 2 drawings a day. So you have :

Column 1 : annee_numero_de_tirage (drawing # in actual year)
column 2 : # of day's drawing : 1 or 2
column 3 : drawing day : ME for Wednesday and SA for Saturday
column 4 :drawing date format : yyyy/mm/dd
column 5 : forclusion date (end day of paying)
column 6,7,8,9,10,11 : # in drawing order
column 12 : bonus ball
column 13 : # in sorted order
etc...

taaroa

PAB
05-23-2005, 06:37 PM
Hi taaroa,


Originally posted by taaroa
Hi,

This is the URL to get the French lotto archives :

http://www.fdjeux.com/jeux/loto/loto_s_historiques.php

There is a _ in : loto_s_historiques.

When page open, just click on the Zipped file to download. Unzip it with Winzip. The file format is CSV and open as an excel file.

In this lottery, there are 2 drawings a day. So you have :

Column 1 : annee_numero_de_tirage (drawing # in actual year)
column 2 : # of day's drawing : 1 or 2
column 3 : drawing day : ME for Wednesday and SA for Saturday
column 4 :drawing date format : yyyy/mm/dd
column 5 : forclusion date (end day of paying)
column 6,7,8,9,10,11 : # in drawing order
column 12 : bonus ball
column 13 : # in sorted order
etc...

taaroa
Thank you Very Much for the Information :agree2: .
I will have a Look at the Web Site in the Morning.

All the Best.
PAB
:wavey:

GillesD
05-23-2005, 08:33 PM
You are right, johnph77, the # 43 occuring most often as N5 is sligthly off the expected value of 40. But looking at the actual data for N5, #43 occured 128 times and not far behind is #40 with 123 times. So the data up to now is now perfect but this is the price of randomness.

Too bad this forum does not allow posting of an Excel chart because I have positional analysis (both actual and expected values) in chart forms and it is easier to view the information in this manner.

GillesD
05-23-2005, 08:49 PM
Thanks taaroa

A good site to get for all results for the French lottery. Even if in French, most of you should have no problem downloading it into a CSV file wich can be read by Excel.

The 6 unsorted numbers are given in 6 columns but the sorted data is in the form n1-n2-n3-n4-n5-n6 but it can easily be broken down into 6 columns.

One queston, taaroa, since somewhere in 1990, there are 2 draws on Saturday and Wednesday for a total of 4 per week. Are both draws the same, meaning you can win from either one or is there a different price structure for each of the draws?

Grandmaster
05-23-2005, 08:51 PM
Gilles D,

You could use the trick johnph77 did in last excel post , he replaced spaces with ....

And the images gets accurate.

Regards

taaroa
05-24-2005, 12:34 AM
Hi GillesD,

We have : 2 drawings Wednesday,and two drawings Saturday.
You register your tickets the day before the drawings. Your tickets are validated for the two drawings of Saturday for instance. So you can win on the first drawing, then on the second drawing of Saturday with the same tickets.

Last Saturday drawing, I got a 3 in 6 on the first drawing and two 3 in 6 on the second drawing with the same tickets.

Now, you can register the same tickets for some drawings to come. Ex : You can register and pay the same tickets for Wednesday and Saturday. Price is x 2. You can do that for up to 5 weeks.

Hope this is clear enough.


taaroa

johnph77
05-24-2005, 02:57 AM
grandmaster -

Not only did I use periods, I cut-and-pasted the table turned text file then the non-scalable font tags so I could achieve what I posted. It's not that hard when you edit the post that way before posting.

GillesD -

I have positional frequency and sum frequency charts for all games up to and including 7/100 on my site.

GillesD
05-24-2005, 06:01 PM
Grandmaster

Go look at all my posts and you will see that any table I post is usually well presented and easy to read. So these presentation techniques are well known.

My comment was not meant to condemn tables but anybody will have some hard time convincing me that a large table (like 49 rows by 8 columns) is as easy and fast to read as a very simple chart.

In most cases, I do not want to know precisely if a data value is 1,234,567 or 1,432,765 but I want look at the general picture (values going up or down, generally equal to other, etc.). And for this, a graph is much better.

johnph77

It is very kind of you to provide graphs on your site but when I look at some information on this site, I do not want to go to other places to better understand what is posted.

I just made the comment to deplore that graphs cannot be posted here. I know this could lead to excesses but maybe LT could find a way to do it (like going through him).

taaroa
05-25-2005, 01:02 AM
Hi,

These are the results I have for my 649 lottery :

Results for 6 balls plus Bonus ball

Median 25 25 26 25 25 26 27
Mode 34 2 20 9 22 45 36
Average 25 25 25 25 25 24 25

Did you got the same result?

Now, how must I use these numbers to find the best strategy?

Thank you.

taaroa

powerball
07-24-2005, 11:14 PM
John, have you done a probability and odds table for poker? I am trying to figure out the combinations for the various hands of Texas Hold'em Poker. Here is what I have figured so far:

Royal Flush: 4 possibilities (A, K, Q, J, 10 of each of the 4 suits).
Straight Flush: 40
4 of a Kind: 624
Straight: 2,560
:
Total 5-card hands: 52!/(47! * 6!) = 2,598,960


Originally posted by johnph77
I have positional frequency and sum frequency charts for all games

johnph77
07-25-2005, 02:14 AM
Originally posted by powerball
John, have you done a probability and odds table for poker? I am trying to figure out the combinations for the various hands of Texas Hold'em Poker. Here is what I have figured so far:

Royal Flush: 4 possibilities (A, K, Q, J, 10 of each of the 4 suits).
Straight Flush: 40
4 of a Kind: 624
Straight: 2,560
:
Total 5-card hands: 52!/(47! * 6!) = 2,598,960
powerball -

I have a listing of all 2,598,960 possible 5-card poker hands on another website but it's not broken down into the information you seek. The best source on the web for this sort of data (IMHO) comes from Michael Shackleford, AKA The Wizard Of Odds. A Google or Yahoo web search on those terms will lead you to his site.

gl

j

johnph77
08-17-2005, 12:18 PM
powerball -

I've got pages on my sites I don't remember posting.....


As Dealt Odds - Five Card Poker Hands

Royal Flush -- Possibilities - 4 -- Odds - 1::649,740.00
Straight Flush -- Possibilities - 36 -- Odds - 1::72,193.33
Full House -- Possibilities - 624 -- Odds - 1::4,165.00
Four of a Kind -- Possibilities - 3,744 -- Odds - 1::694.17
Flush -- Possibilities - 5,108 -- Odds - 1::508.80
Straight -- Possibilities - 10,200 -- Odds - 1::254.80
Three of a Kind -- Possibilities - 54,912 -- Odds - 1::47.33
Two Pair -- Possibilities - 123,552 -- Odds - 1::21.04
One Pair -- Possibilities - 1,098,240 -- Odds - 1::2.37
Bust Hand -- Possibilities - 1,302,540 -- Odds - 1::2.00

Total Possiblities - 2,598,960

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